The Rebirth of the Male God Starts From Playing Games Chapter 562

Chapter 562 562. Wonderful, so wonderful!

“Our domestic situation has always been relatively good, but we also have our own problems.

The global economy has begun to show an obvious and even very serious slowdown, and China's economy has also been considerably affected.

We know that China's economy has been on a downward trend in the past few years, especially in 2008 and 2009. In the first half of this year, our economic growth rate was only 6.2% or 6.3%.

Looking around the world, the global economic crisis and recession are also very obvious.

I will mainly tell you about two phenomena here.

One phenomenon is that many countries around the world, especially developed countries in Europe and America, have begun to experience so-called negative interest rates. Interest rate is one of the most important indicators for us to judge the economic system.

Whether we are doing industrial and commercial loans or private financing, we must be very concerned about the trend of interest rates.

So what are negative interest rates?

Usually people think that when money is deposited in a bank, the bank should give interest at a certain interest rate. For example, if I save 10,000 yuan until the end of the year, at an interest rate of 1%, I should be able to get 10,100 yuan.

Negative interest rates mean that if you deposit 10,000 yuan in the bank, when you withdraw it at the end of the year, you may only have 9,800 yuan. Not only is there no interest, but the principal is also paid in, which is very strange.

Why are negative interest rates happening around the world now?

To what extent has this phenomenon of negative interest rates reached? "

These two questions made some big guys from the West sitting below panic.

“In fact, for us businessmen, what we care about most is of course money.

When there is enough money, this thing becomes a number.

Where is this number?

For Mi, this number is in the stock market.

This is why when the global financial crisis swept through in 2008, various countries opened the floodgates and released water. In the end, the United States saved the stock market.

Where did the money go in the end?

For the United States, money flows to the stock market, causing the stock prices of leading companies to rise."

Walt! ?

Everyone below was shocked. What Boss Cao said today was all in plain language.

“According to recent data released by authoritative institutions, there are now up to 8 trillion bonds in the world with negative interest rates, and these bonds are mainly European, such as Switzerland's 45-year long-term bonds.

What is the concept of 8 trillion?

Today, the total amount of global bonds is close to 30 trillion or 8 trillion, accounting for about 1/4 of global bonds. That is, 1/4 of the world's bonds have negative interest rates.

I was shocked when I saw this data.

Because logically speaking, long-term bonds are risky and should have higher yields.

But the current situation is that the longer the long-term bond, the lower the interest rate, which is the phenomenon of interest rate inversion, that is, the yield of long-term bonds is lower than the yield of short-term bonds.

Since last year, the inversion of government bond yields has aroused heated discussions among people, who believe that the economy may slow down significantly or even recession.

Because in history, when the yields on long-term government bonds and the yields on short-term government bonds are inverted, there is a 70% chance that the economy will experience a recession.

The 2008 financial crisis is a living example. "

The camera gave a big close-up of Boss Cao. Everyone looked at this guy and didn't know what to say.

At the same time, after giving Cao Yang the camera, he also gave it to Comrade Ma Yun sitting below.

Arima was caught by the camera and covered her mouth in embarrassment, her eyes filled with helplessness.

I want to laugh but dare not.

All he had to do was go on stage to remind Boss Cao to pay attention to his speech and not to whip others out of the West at every turn.

Enough is enough.

Where can I put more face on others?

However, Cao Yang had already made preparations before he came. Since you want us to talk about the reconstruction of the world after the crisis, you naturally have to explain clearly how the crisis came about and what reference it can have for other countries.

This is also important.

And isn't this something everyone knows in the world?

“Of course we can see that after 2008, the Federal Reserve has taken action to cut interest rates, not only cutting interest rates, but also releasing funds.

Where did the water go after that?

I have mentioned this before, so I won't say more about it. "

“So what does this negative interest rate and interest rate inversion mean?

Why do global investors invest such huge amounts of money in the bond market with negative interest rates instead of investing in some infrastructure, high technology, real estate or other financial projects?

This shows that people have no confidence in the future economic prospects, believe that other investment directions are more risky, and are unwilling to take risks.

In other words, today's global financial market is no longer about which investment direction can make more money, but which investment direction may bring us less losses in the future.

Then many investors believe that bonds are the safest among all investment directions, so they would rather accept negative interest rates and buy them.

In fact, this phenomenon also shows from one aspect that the global economy is now in big trouble, and people are relatively pessimistic about the prospects of the global economy.

In other words, although our global economy began to recover in 2009, people's mood is still pessimistic. This may affect the future trend of the global economy and is a matter worthy of our concern.

How to deal with it?

I think we need to give everyone confidence. If money goes to some non-high-tech industries, non-infrastructure industries, and non-industries that improve people's livelihood, then how can you give people confidence?

We must still find ways to curb the appetite of those unscrupulous companies and direct their money where they really should go.

Only in this way can we boost confidence and usher in the next decade of growth. "

Yes, Cao Yang is talking about Wall Street!

All I have to do is report their names.

Everyone below was stunned when they heard it, and seemed to be thinking whether the world's richest man would still be here next year.

But what Boss Cao said is also a fact -

If your money is not used for high technology and infrastructure, all people see are a bunch of strange numbers and cannot see the changes around them. Think about it, when I buy things, my wages have not increased and prices have not increased. The number of things you can buy has not increased, so what do I think about the current economic environment?

The economy is improving and people can feel it.

The economy is not doing well, and people can feel it.

"So what's the second fact?

Just before the 2008 financial crisis, many countries released the so-called PMI manufacturing economic index.

We all know that the PMI index uses 50% as the dividing line between prosperity and decline. If it is higher than 50%, it means that the manufacturing industry is expanding; if it is lower than 50%, it means that the manufacturing industry is no longer expanding.

Then the PMI indexes of all countries released before this are below the boom and bust line, including Piao Guoliang.

So we can see that the global manufacturing industry is shrinking or experiencing a sharp slowdown.

It is against this background that the world's major economic and financial authorities, including the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the OECD, have released economic forecast reports.

They believe that the global economy will shrink significantly in 2008 and even in the next few years.

Then under this trend, a financial crisis, or economic crisis, will occur around the world, and it will show the following important characteristics.

The first is that global stock markets may experience a significant correction.

Especially in the past few years, Piao Guoliang's stock market has risen rapidly, and now Piao Guoliang's stock index remains at a high level.

Therefore, many people judge that the beautiful Dow Jones Index may drop significantly in the next year, and the drop may even exceed 30%, that is, it will drop from today's 26,000 or 27,000 points to below 20,000 points.

This will be a relatively medium-sized adjustment, or a crisis adjustment.

If a beautiful country's stock index undergoes a sharp correction, the stock markets of other countries will follow suit. "

Ma Yun covered her face, not daring to laugh at all.

Okay, okay, Mr. Cao, you have beaten enough.

"But the good news is that judging from the current situation in the second half of 2009, the global economy has begun to pick up, which should be good news for everyone."

But there is still a sentence left unsaid, but this result is just because the United States delayed the financial crisis by releasing water. After all, it will break out one day, but it may be in ten or fifteen years. , or twenty years from now.

If it breaks out again at that time, it will be a huge disaster, and the situation will be much more violent than what we encountered before.

We have to be prepared to deal with it.

Cao Yang paused and continued, "In fact, after 2008 and 2009, many countries, led by Piao Guoliang, used quantitative easing policies to solve the global financial crisis at that time.

During this process, asset prices have skyrocketed. The stock market has been rising for ten years, and now it is experiencing a correction. This is completely normal.

So some people may ask, is the Chinese stock market already beyond adjustment?

but it is not the truth. I recently listened to a speech by Gang Xiao, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission. He talked about a structural problem in China's stock market.

Even if the Chinese stock market falls to 2,400 or 2,500 points, you will find that the price-to-earnings ratios of the vast majority of small and medium-sized companies, especially small and medium-sized companies in the manufacturing technology field, are still very high.

The reason why China's average price-to-earnings ratio is relatively low is because our large state-owned enterprises, especially large banks such as China Construction Engineering Corporation, have very low price-to-earnings ratios, which has pulled down the average price-to-earnings ratio.

Therefore, it seems that China is already a value depression based on the average price-to-earnings ratio, but in fact this is a misunderstanding.

If global stock markets experience a sharp decline, Chinese stock markets will follow suit. "

For us, this is actually helpless to a certain extent, because the rice dollar is the world's currency. If you don't follow the release of the rice dollar, you will have difficulties in exporting due to appreciation.

The reason is very simple. Originally, when you exported a smartphone, the price might be 1,000 yuan.

Nowadays, the rice dollar is greatly devalued. If there is more money, it will naturally depreciate. If the soft currency is not devalued, it will continue to appreciate.

1,000 soft girl coins used to be exchanged for 150 yuan, but now they can be exchanged for 180 yuan. So for the buyer, the price of your goods will naturally increase.

I don't dare to buy your product at this time.

As a result, exports will be significantly weakened.

But we are very dependent on exports. We are the world's largest export trading country.

Then the interest rate of the rice dollar rises and prices fall back. As the rice dollar appreciates, all your goods will depreciate along with it. People can use the banknotes that were printed more before, but are equally valuable now, to buy more of your goods. .

This is the truth about how the rice dollar harvests global wealth.

It's as simple as expanding and contracting. Other countries have to follow. If they don't follow, they will be harvested.

So we are also helpless.

Cao Yang said, “The second one is the debt crisis.

I said before that the global GDP has just exceeded 30 trillion US dollars, but the scale of global debt may have exceeded double the GDP, or even more.

In this sense, global adjustments are inevitable.

Because in the past few years, many countries around the world have relied on the accumulation of debt and increased leverage to achieve economic expansion.

This trend is actually unsustainable.

Nowadays, there are often thunderous news in our country, and P2P is even more terrible; the non-performing loans of commercial banks are also very risky, and the debts of many large companies may not be repaid on time, which will lead to the outbreak of a debt crisis. Therefore, there will be a serious crisis in global debt, and many companies will go bankrupt as a result.

The third is that there will be exchange rate fluctuations.

Some time ago, the exchange rate of Ruanmei currency depreciated, which attracted great attention from many people. If there is a crisis or recession in the global economy, it will also have a greater impact on the exchange rate of soft sister currencies.

So in the context of a general slowdown in the global economy and even an economic crisis, how should we ordinary investors prepare?

I think there are several points here that are very important.

First, whether we are doing business or investing, we must first manage risks and avoid high-risk assets and industries as much as possible. We must not blindly speculate. We must control our own leverage and repay debts as much as possible.

We all know that many large companies and investors collapsed in debt crises and financial crises because of the pressure of high leverage. So we must manage high leverage.

Second, keep as many liquid assets as possible, such as cash, bonds, or bank financial assets, which are relatively safe and reliable.

Third, make some adjustments to your asset allocation. For example, friends who have a large number of real estate should do some sales appropriately. Especially friends who use funds and credit to speculate in real estate need to take some measures to make adjustments.

Fourth, we need to make a rational judgment about future investment returns and can no longer expect high returns.

The past era of making quick money, making big money, having an impetuous mentality, and hoping to get rich overnight has basically passed.

For the future, each of us should adjust our mentality and calm down to do our own things well.

In fact, the financial crisis is not necessarily a bad thing.

For example, in the past two days, everyone is concerned about the awarding of the Nobel Prize. We can see that since 2000, scientists from island countries have won the Nobel Prize almost every year. How did they do it? High-quality education is one of the main reasons for its rapid growth.

You must know that original scientific and technological achievements require years of concentrated research.

Well, the island country had a bubble economy in the 1980s, and then the bubble burst, which actually made the entire society of the island country calm down and do solid research, improve product quality, and transform the economy.

After so many years, the economy of the island country can be said to have become one of the most mature economies in the world, and the island country has also become one of the most developed countries in the world.

Therefore, the financial crisis may seem like a bad thing, but it is actually a good thing. It depends on our attitude towards dealing with it. "

Damn it!

Ma Yun was dumbfounded and smiled from ear to ear.

Mr. Cao is really brave and very brave. His courage is admirable.

Ma Yun thought that she was able to speak out, but she never expected that Boss Cao could make such a speech on such an occasion.

Especially the last paragraph.

You don't know whether he is seriously praising the island country for doing a good job, which is why many economists were born, or whether he is mocking you. It is precisely because you have encountered so many problems that you have become a good doctor after a long period of illness. many economists.

Looking back at the members of the island nation who were present, the expressions on their faces were also unusually embarrassed—

There was a half-smiling expression on his face, and he was probably not sure whether he was being praised or ridiculed.

This situation is equivalent to praising you for wiping your **** very well, mainly because there are too many people pooping on you.

Although Boss Cao initially attacked the main culprits of the financial crisis and expressed his dissatisfaction that China was also implicated, his final goal was still very pragmatic. He talked about how companies should deal with possible financial crises in the future. At the same time, It also talked about how ordinary people should deal with it.

Of course, when a real global financial crisis strikes, it will always be ordinary people who get hurt.

On the contrary, the rich will gain a lot of wealth in this process of rising first and then shrinking.

After all, countries like Inter Milan will give priority to releasing water to save their own stock markets. In the end, the money does not flow into the hands of ordinary people, thereby increasing consumption at the entire social level and getting the economy running.

On the contrary, after the crisis, the wealth of the rich has skyrocketed, and they are full of food.

This is actually extremely unfair.

But Cao Yang just stopped there and didn't go any further.

Many of the people sitting at the scene are vested interests.

After the speech, Cao Yang also accepted questions from American New York Times reporter Sorkin.

Sorkin asked Cao Yang, "Mr. Cao, your speech at the Davos Forum today was really unique and inspiring to us.

I would like to ask why in such a global forum, Mr. Ma Yun, an entrepreneur also from China, gave a speech in English.

And why do you insist on using Chinese? "

Cao Yang smiled and said, "First of all, I don't think the language issue is a problem. Teacher Ma is an English teacher and he prefers to communicate in English, which is more cordial.

As for me, I like to use Chinese because some words may be expressed more accurately in Chinese.

Moreover, I am Chinese.

Forums for the world are not limited to English-speaking countries. I think I am pretty good at using Chinese. "

Once you have a conversation, you will find that these reporters are really bad. They not only want to divert attention, but also create conflicts.

Cao Yang and Ma Yun had already had a bet in China and had different stances, but now they were being provoked here.

However, Cao Yang responded in a timely manner. He also took care of Ma Yun's face, saying that he was an English teacher and the reason why he used English was more approachable.

Even if Cao Yang dislikes Ma Yun at home, outside everyone has a common identity, called Chinese entrepreneurs, so he still has to protect each other's face.

At the same time, the conflicts between the two of them were put aside in a more diplomatic way.

Don't let others think that Cao Yang and Ma Yun have any issues.

"Mr. Cao mentioned globalization at the forum today, and I would also like to ask you about your views on globalization," Sorkin said.

"Globalization is an irreversible process and is the best choice for capital, because it can reduce costs to a minimum, and because all production capacity can be maximized through a more refined division of labor, it actually helps to improve productivity. .

Since globalization began, countries that have joined globalization have benefited from it, and we are the ones who have felt it the most. "Cao Yang returned seriously.

"So, is there such a possibility?" Sorkin continued to dig holes for him, "Obviously this work should be done in the United States, but because China's labor force is cheaper, companies have set up foundries in China. Throwing some jobs over there has resulted in many people being unemployed in our country. How do you view this globalization issue?”

After hearing such a pointed question raised by Sorkin, the whole place fell into silence. People with good intentions looked at Cao Yang with gloating eyes, eager to see how he would resolve this problem.

The entire interview process was public, and in the hall of the Davos Forum, Sorkin and Cao Yang sat face to face on the sofa. They wore headsets, and what they said could be heard by the entire venue.

Cao Yang lowered his head and thought for a second, a look of sullenness appeared on his face, but he soon regained his composure, "

You know, the globalization strategy was proposed by you and the United States. Why?

Because those people on Wall Street and those capitalists feel that the cost of domestic workers is too high and want to move them out. This is the first thing.

Capital is profit-seeking.

This is nature.

Then what? In fact, this strategy works really well. Your high-tech industry is very developed, and you rely on patents and high technology to harvest wealth around the world.

Inter multinational corporations have made a lot of money in the process of globalization.

IBM, Microsoft, these companies make as much money as China's four major banks...but where does the money go?

The key is Inter Milan's strategic mistake, which resulted in the money not being spent in the right place:

In the past 30 years, Inter Milan has spent 14.2 trillion US dollars on many wars. What if part of these funds were invested in infrastructure, helping collar and blue-collar workers?

No matter how good your strategy is, you should invest in the people. "

"There is still a lot of money flowing to Wall Street. Then what? The financial crisis happened in 2008, and US$19.2 trillion was lost. What if this money did not flow to Wall Street, but to develop the Midwest?

It's not that other countries have stolen Inter Milan's job opportunities. This is your strategic problem. You have not allocated resources reasonably. "

Damn it!

Wonderful, so wonderful!

Hearing Boss Cao's retort, many non-Inter Milan attendees couldn't help but want to stand up and applaud him.

Boss Cao was really brave today.

Dare to tell any truth.

And it was reasonable and well-founded, which silenced the other party.

… (End of this chapter)

Chapter end